15 Northern States Will Collapse Within 3 Months” — Ogunyemi Hits Atiku Over Subsidy Promise

Professor Tunji Ogunyemi of Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, has criticised the African Democratic Congress presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, over his promise to restore fuel subsidy if elected president in 2027.

According to Ireporter Online, Ogunyemi made the remarks while speaking on the Open Forum 360 podcast hosted by Dare Adekanmbi, where he warned that reversing the subsidy removal could significantly reduce revenue accruing to the Federation Account.

The university don and public affairs analyst claimed that such a reduction could put several states under severe financial pressure, particularly in the northern region. He estimated that more than 15 northern states could collapse within three months if the subsidy regime is restored.

Ogunyemi argued that only a handful of states in Nigeria have sufficient internally generated revenue to operate without relying heavily on federal allocations, describing the Federation Account as the financial lifeline of more than 30 states.

He said restoring the subsidy could result in reduced revenue available for distribution to the three tiers of government, with serious consequences for state finances.

According to him, one of the immediate effects would be a return to a situation where several state governments struggle to pay workers’ salaries and meet pension obligations.

He also warned that reduced revenue would leave governments with little capacity to fund capital projects after meeting basic recurrent expenditure.

Ogunyemi further expressed concern that lower government revenue could affect Nigeria’s ability to meet its debt obligations, adding that the potential consequences of the policy should not be overlooked for political gains.

He urged Atiku to provide greater clarity on how his proposed subsidy policy would be financed and implemented, rather than making promises primarily to attract electoral support.

The professor described the proposal as potentially “calamitous” and accused the former vice-president of playing to the gallery.

He cautioned that policies capable of significantly affecting national revenue should be subjected to careful economic analysis, arguing that political calculations should not take precedence over the country’s financial stability.

Atiku, who is seeking to succeed President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election under the ADC, has made the restoration of fuel subsidy one of the policy positions generating debate ahead of the poll.