CBN Projects 4.49% Economic Growth And Inflation Easing To 12.94% In 2026

According to Ireporter Online, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected the country’s economy to grow by 4.49 per cent next year, with inflation expected to ease to an average of 12.94 per cent. In its 2026 economic outlook, the CBN attributed the anticipated growth and disinflation to stable foreign exchange markets and rising oil production.

The projections reflect cautious optimism following two years of extensive reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. The bank highlighted that structural adjustments in oil, tax, and foreign exchange markets are central to sustaining economic growth and reducing inflationary pressures.

The CBN expects stronger non-oil sector performance and improved external buffers, despite ongoing fiscal deficits and external vulnerabilities. The bank noted, “The growth prospect in 2026 is positive on account of continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and improved stability in the exchange rate. Easing monetary policy would add impetus to growth following the anticipated reduction in the cost of lending.”

In its monetary policy stance, the CBN maintained the benchmark interest rate at 27 per cent in November, while trimming the deposit rate, signaling confidence in the economy. Headline inflation, which averaged 21.26 per cent this year, is expected to decline further as food and fuel prices stabilize and forex markets remain steady. Inflation slowed for the eighth consecutive month in November to 14.45 per cent.

The bank’s outlook assumes oil prices of $55 per barrel, with output around 1.50 million barrels per day and an official exchange rate near N1,400 per dollar. Fiscal spending is projected to remain expansionary, with a deficit of N12.14 trillion, or 3.01 per cent of GDP, largely financed through domestic borrowing. External reserves are expected to rise to $51.04 billion, supported by a $18.81 billion current account surplus from stronger oil and non-oil exports, as well as remittances.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso noted that over the past year, Nigeria’s economy has shifted from crisis management to laying the foundation for sustainable recovery. “After nearly a decade in which real GDP growth averaged about two per cent, reforms have restored momentum and confidence in our macroeconomic environment. Our economy grew by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, the strongest pace in four years, driven by telecommunications, financial services, and oil production,” she said.

She added that inflation, while still elevated, has consistently moderated—from a peak of 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 16.05 per cent in October 2025—marking seven consecutive months of disinflation. Food inflation, the largest component of the basket, fell to 13.12 per cent in October. Cardoso emphasized that the decline in inflation is restoring households’ and businesses’ real purchasing power, reflecting disciplined monetary policy execution.

“Price stability is the foundation of sustainable growth. Our transition to an inflation-targeting framework is gaining traction. Stronger domestic production, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and disciplined liquidity management are expected to continue supporting disinflation in 2026. Monetary policy will remain evidence-based, data-driven, and focused on anchoring inflation expectations,” the governor concluded.