Petrol Imports Drop by N2tn as Domestic Production Rises

Nigeria’s petrol import bill dropped by over N2tn in the first quarter of 2025, falling to N1.76tn from the N3.81tn recorded in the same period last year, according to the latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics. This marks a 54 per cent year-on-year decline and a 47 per cent drop from the N3.3tn spent in Q4 2024. The plunge has been largely attributed to increased local supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has been ramping up operations since early 2024. The refinery’s growing output is gradually displacing foreign suppliers and reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.

A review of petrol import trends over the past five years shows a steady rise until 2024, with imports climbing from N732bn in Q1 2020 to N2.69tn in Q1 2022. Although there was a slight dip to N2.03tn in Q1 2023, the figure surged to an all-time high of N3.81tn in Q1 2024 before this year’s sharp drop to N1.76tn, a level last seen before 2022. The latest figures also reveal that petrol was Nigeria’s most imported product from ECOWAS countries in Q1 2025, amounting to N89.18bn or 44.51 per cent of all imports from the region, and accounting for 11.63 per cent of total African imports.

Despite the gains in local refining, Nigeria still relies partly on regional trade to meet domestic fuel demand. Alongside petrol, gas oil worth N23.15bn and petroleum bitumen valued at N20.58bn were also imported from the ECOWAS region, underlining the petroleum sector’s dominance in the country’s import portfolio. Petrol remained among Nigeria’s top five most imported commodities, joined by gas oil, crude petroleum oils, cane sugar for refining, and durum wheat.

The report noted that “the most traded commodities imported during the quarter were gas oil, motor spirit (ordinary), petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), cane sugar meant for sugar refinery, and durum wheat (not in seeds).” The Dangote Refinery, currently operating at around 85 per cent of its 650,000 barrels per day capacity, is playing a significant role in the transformation of Nigeria’s fuel market. Retail petrol prices in Lagos dropped to as low as N860 per litre earlier this year, reflecting increased domestic availability.

However, the refinery’s operations have not been without challenges. In March, it temporarily halted local currency sales due to difficulties sourcing foreign exchange. Although it purchases crude in US dollars, payments from local buyers were made in naira, creating a bottleneck. The Federal Government later intervened to resolve the issue, allowing operations to continue.

Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Group, recently hinted at an upcoming “major shakedown” in the country’s downstream oil sector, saying the refinery is set for a significant expansion. Speaking after President Bola Tinubu’s visit to the $20bn facility in Lekki, Lagos, Dangote stated that the overhaul was not about price reduction but about fundamentally changing the sector. “Now that the President has visited and he has given us additional energy, we will inform you, you will hear from us soon, and that will be one of the major shakedowns in the entire country,” he said.

He added that the refinery would be listed on the stock exchange, beginning with the fertiliser company this year. Emphasising the refinery’s economic impact, Dangote declared that the days of long fuel queues in Nigeria were over. “We remain steadfast in our commitment to contributing meaningfully to Nigeria’s economic transformation, supporting your administration’s efforts to build a self-reliant, globally competitive nation,” he said. “With continued collaboration and shared resolve, we are confident that the journey ahead will usher in even greater opportunities for our people and our country.”