Birth Rate Trends in Nigeria: A Three-Year Analysis

Birth Rate Trends In Nigeria: A Three-Year Analysis

Over the past three years, birth rates in various Nigerian states have shown fluctuations, marking a notable departure from the previously consistent upward trend. An investigation on sundayhighlights a significant shift in birth rate patterns, coinciding with deteriorating living conditions across the country……..READ MORE

Experts in population studies, healthcare, family planning, and nutrition have expressed concerns that these trends could lead to a decline in Nigeria’s population over time. Data collected from general and teaching hospitals in 14 states reveal irregularities in the number of live births, with financial constraints and limited access to quality healthcare influencing reproductive decisions among educated couples.

Fluctuations in Birth Rates

Statistics compiled between 2023 and 2025 from selected hospitals and the National Population Commission (NPC) indicate that fertility rates have varied across states. The NPC’s records, last officially updated in 2021, show a shift in Nigeria’s reproductive patterns, potentially linked to economic hardship.

According to the NPC, the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) recorded an average fertility rate of 5.0 children per woman of reproductive age (15-49). This rate increased to 5.3 percent in 2018 but dropped to 4.8 percent in 2021. Similarly, data from Worldometer, which compiles United Nations statistics, reported Nigeria’s population at 237,527,782 as of March 2025, reflecting a 2.08% annual growth rate. This figure follows a steady decline in population growth from 2.12% in 2023 and 2.15% in 2020, underscoring a possible link between economic conditions and reproductive choices.

An NPC official, speaking anonymously, noted that surveys conducted every five years help monitor demographic shifts. He suggested that the recent fertility decline could be attributed to financial difficulties affecting household planning decisions.

Economic Hardship and Family Planning Decisions

Economic instability since 2015, characterized by inflation, job losses, and rising living costs, has strained household incomes, prompting many families to reconsider family size. While cultural and religious norms in Nigeria traditionally encourage large families, the rising cost of living may be reversing this trend.

The fertility rate increase from 5.0% in 2015 to 5.3% in 2018 suggests that economic hardships did not immediately affect birth rates, possibly due to limited access to contraceptives or delayed responses to financial pressures. However, by 2021, a decline to 4.8% indicated that prolonged economic strain had begun to shape reproductive choices. Experts warn that continued economic hardship could have lasting effects on fertility rates, maternal health, and child welfare.

Regional Trends and Hospital Records

In Kano State, records from Murtala Mohammed Specialist Hospital show a drop in childbirths, with 12,147 deliveries recorded in 2023, decreasing to 9,422 in 2024. Similar declines were observed in Rivers State, where the State University Teaching Hospital (RSUTH) reported 1,998 births in 2023, dropping to 1,024 in 2024. Medical experts attribute these trends to financial constraints discouraging larger families.

Conversely, Akwa Ibom State has reported declining patronage of maternity services at the University of Uyo Teaching Hospital (UUTH) and other healthcare facilities, with traditional birth attendants citing economic hardship as a deterrent to childbirth. Likewise, Lagos State’s NPC director, Bamidele Sadiku, indicated that birth rates have fluctuated over recent years, reflecting broader national trends.

Some states, however, reported increased birth rates despite economic challenges. Enugu State saw a rise in births by over 3% of its 4.69 million population between 2023 and 2024. Similarly, Ebonyi State hospitals recorded an increase in deliveries, attributed to cultural factors such as polygamy. In Bauchi State, a high fertility rate of 7.2% was reported in the 2023 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), though experts warn of potential socio-economic strains.

Concerns Over Population Growth and Policy Implications

Despite regional disparities in birth rates, concerns persist regarding Nigeria’s overall population growth. The chairman of the Public Health Sustainable Advocacy Initiative (PHSAI), Barrister Ayo Adebusoye, emphasized the urgent need for strategic policies to manage population expansion. He warned that Nigeria is projected to become the fourth most populous country by 2030, necessitating improved access to voluntary and quality family planning services.

In Kwara State, birth registrations increased from 95,565 in 2023 to 105,692 in 2024. However, in Katsina State, despite previous steady growth in birth registrations, a sharp decline in 2024 was linked to the transition to digital registration, raising concerns about data accuracy. Similarly, Oyo State faces challenges with birth registration, as many births occur in rural communities without official documentation.

With over 70% of births in Nigeria taking place outside formal healthcare facilities, experts stress the need for improved access to medical services, better data collection, and economic policies that support family planning. Addressing these issues will be crucial for ensuring sustainable population growth and economic stability in the coming years.