Tinubu’s Economic Strategy: A Recipe for Failure?

President Bola Tinubu recently unveiled two key economic initiatives: the 31-member Presidential Economic Coordination Council (PECC) and the 19-member Economic Management Team Emergency Taskforce (EET). While this move marks a step up from his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari—who notably lacked an economic adviser during his first term—it reveals a troubling pattern. Like Buhari, Tinubu appears resistant to embracing independent economic expertise, a tendency reflected both in his cabinet appointments and now in the composition of these economic bodies.

A Misguided Approach?

The very names of these groups—”coordination” and “management”—imply that Tinubu believes Nigeria’s economic policies merely require fine-tuning. This approach overlooks a critical issue: Nigeria’s economic model is fundamentally flawed and in dire need of expert-led reform. Renowned economist Professor John Williamson emphasized the importance of economic technocrats in designing the institutions and policies necessary for revitalizing a struggling economy. However, Tinubu’s strategy focuses on managing existing policies rather than seeking innovative solutions, putting the cart before the horse.

Statist and Corporatist Tendencies

A closer look at the PECC and EET reveals that they are largely statist and corporatist in nature. The PECC, for example, is predominantly a government-driven entity, with only 13 of its 31 members coming from the private sector. The EET fares no better, with just three non-political members out of 19. In such a landscape, the influence of respected economist Bismarck Rewane is likely to be diluted amidst a sea of political appointees.

Moreover, the composition of these councils raises concerns about corporatism—where the state colludes with large interest groups. Many of the private-sector members in these councils are business magnates with strong government ties, or individuals who simply value the prestige of being on a government committee. In Nigeria, this form of “public-private partnership” often equates to corporatism, with the state playing favorites to benefit a select few.

The Dangote Factor

Dr. Dele Sobowale, a prominent columnist, recently highlighted how Aliko Dangote, Nigeria’s foremost oligarch, has been a consistent presence in every Presidential Economic Council since 1999. Dangote’s inclusion in Tinubu’s PECC is unsurprising, given his close relationship with the state, which has been instrumental in the growth of his business empire.

This situation contrasts sharply with the United States, where business leaders like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, or Jeff Bezos would be unlikely to join a government committee just because the president invited them. Their success is rooted in a free market, not in the corporatist dynamics that dominate Nigeria. In the U.S., the government cannot unduly harass citizens or businesses. In Nigeria, however, the state can make life difficult for anyone not in its favor.

Tinubu’s economic councils, with their statist and corporatist leanings, are unlikely to deliver the transformative change Nigeria desperately needs. Instead of focusing on coordinating and managing existing policies, the country requires independent, expert-led economic reform. Without this shift, Tinubu’s economic strategy may prove to be a recipe for failure.