2023:Why Tinubu May Outshine Jonathan, Umahi, Rochas And Secure The APC Ticket For The South

2023:Why Tinubu May Outshine Jonathan, Umahi, Rochas And Secure The APC Ticket For The South

The 2023 forthcoming presidential election is no doubt on a roller coaster already. The fireworks have begun in full swing although the cloud still looks very hazy to decide where the pendulum would swing to.

But from close observations, it seems the South would be the top gainers as the presidency almost looks certain to swing their way. The first battle to cross is the presidential zoning between the South and the North.

Now let me take you back to history and give reasons why the North may find it difficult to breach this agreement this time around.

First and foremost the political power in which the North seeks transcends political affiliation, I would explain this better in a later article.

Obasanjo paid the North back when he superintended the 1979 election, after which he handed over control of Nigeria to the newly elected civilian president, Shehu Shagari.

Obasanjo was earlier handed over power in the interim at the demise of his boss General Murtala Muhammed, it was held in trust for the North.

During the failed military transition of General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, MKO Abiola the most influential South-West leader at the time was denied his victory at the June 12, 1993, presidential elections. To date, that election is still regarded as the freest and fairest in the annals of Nigeria’s history.

The man was killed while in detention.

Then it was time for another election/agreement, the North this time around deferred to the dictate of payback time and zoned the 1999 presidential ticket to the South-West specifically to address the earlier anomaly perpetrated against the South West.

Coincidentally Obasanjo became the beneficiary of the gentleman’s agreement, and in turn, he handed over power to his close allies in the north. (The Late President Umar Musa Yar’Adua  was a younger brother to his childhood military ally  General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua.)

Similar circumstances hover around the 2023 presidential ticket as there was a gentleman’s agreement that the South would follow up after Buhari’s eight years tenure, this arrangement is peculiar to the APC which happens to be the ruling party.

Now take note, this power rotation is between the North and South and has nothing to do with zoning to a particular region in the South or in the North.

So herein lies the main power tussle in the APC, who amongst the three regions gets the nod? the South-West, South-South or South-East?

The South-West today boast of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who seems to have outshined all other aspirants, eg Kayode Fayemi and co.

The issue of the South-West is a case of presenting their best all-round political figure for the race. Buhari’s shoes seem too big to fill, in that the president has a larger than life followership that simply means his successor would need to have such popularity and acceptance Nation Wide to stand a good chance of retaining the presidency under the All Progressive Congress, APC.

As we speak today Tinubu fits in the description properly, if you take a closer look at the politics been played in the South-West you would discover that aspirants are careful not to throw their hat in the ring until Asiwaju declares where he stands. It is like an aberration for the South-West to present other candidates when the Jagaban is in the race.

The reasons are not far fetched, Tinubu has paid his dues in the South-West and most of the likely candidates would not want to have any friction with the political master if he decides to contest. The viable candidates were all his students one time or the other.

Of what use entering the contest when Tinubu has declared his intention? It is like committing political suicide in the South-West.

If you recall about this time in Obasanjo’s second tenure Atiku was already restless and jumping from pillar to post all in a bid to succeed Obasanjo.

The South-west would not overheat the polity with their chosen candidate, they seem prepared to take a collective stance. In line with the submission above my ASSUMPTION is that Tinubu would be the South-West candidate.

The fear of Tinubu is the beginning of political wisdom, a Goodluck Jonathan would never throw his hat in the ring if Tinubu is interested in the APC ticket, Jonathan would rather seek Tinubu’s support than go against Tinubu in a runoff.

That leaves us with David Umahi, Rochas Okorocha and others.

The South-East is sadly not in the equation, they have a little stake in the whole arrangement, any presidential aspirant chosen must deliver his full region. A South East Presidential candidate under the APC would not win a single State for the APC in the presidential election how much more winning the region.

But give and take whether Tinubu throws his hat in the ring or not, the Jagaban would still be the determinant factor in who succeeds Buhari.

Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah writes in from Abuja.

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