PHILLIPS CONSULTING INDEX: WHY THE FINDINGS REFLECT EDO’S INHERITED FISCAL BURDEN—NOT OKPEBHOLO’S RECORD

PHILLIPS CONSULTING INDEX: WHY THE FINDINGS REFLECT EDO’S INHERITED FISCAL BURDEN—NOT OKPEBHOLO’S RECORD

How opposition propaganda turned inherited 2024 debt figures into a misleading judgment on a government that had barely taken office

By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah

When a report is reduced to one dramatic headline, context is usually the first casualty.

Following the release of the 2026 Phillips Consulting State Performance Index, political opponents celebrated Edo State’s position at the bottom of the Momentum Index as a verdict on Governor Monday Okpebholo’s administration.

That interpretation may be politically convenient, but it is not supported by the assessment period or the underlying data.

The index’s objective indicators are based principally on Edo State’s fiscal position in 2024. Governor Okpebholo assumed office on November 12, 2024, when more than ten months of that financial year had already passed.

In simple language, the report largely examined a financial house built before Okpebholo received the keys.

The timeline changes the interpretation

By the time Okpebholo became governor, the 2024 budget had been prepared and substantially implemented by the previous administration. Most revenue had been collected, expenditure decisions executed, procurement undertaken and borrowing obligations accumulated.

Okpebholo had only about seven weeks left before the financial year ended.

The Phillips Consulting assessment reportedly assigns approximately 70 per cent of its Momentum Index to objective indicators drawn principally from FY2024 audited accounts, debt position, revenue self-reliance, financial reporting and revenue growth between 2023 and 2024.

These are overwhelmingly inherited figures—not a fair measurement of Okpebholo’s record.

The report’s reliance on 2024 accounts is further demonstrated by the exclusion of Rivers State and the Federal Capital Territory because their audited FY2024 accounts were unavailable by the assessment cut-off date.

Inherited debt drove Edo’s weak score

The index recorded Edo’s IGR-to-FAAC ratio at 74 per cent and its debt per capita at approximately ₦123,000. Although the revenue self-reliance indicator strengthened Edo’s position, the high debt-per-capita figure weighed heavily on its overall momentum score.

Where did that debt come from?

Certainly not from the few weeks Okpebholo spent in office before the end of 2024.

BudgIT’s State of States Report 2025 shows that Edo’s total debt stock rose from approximately ₦71.68 billion in 2015 to about ₦701.10 billion in 2024—a nominal increase of 791.04 per cent.

Godwin Obaseki governed Edo State from November 2016 until November 2024. Consequently, the overwhelming portion of the debt position captured at the end of 2024 accumulated during his eight-year administration—not during Okpebholo’s final seven weeks of that financial year.

By 2024, Edo’s domestic debt stood at approximately ₦113 billion, while its foreign debt had reached $383.05 million. Annual debt servicing also climbed from ₦9.55 billion in 2020 to ₦49.11 billion in 2024.

Exchange-rate depreciation significantly increased the naira valuation of the foreign debt, so the 791.04 per cent nominal increase should not be presented as though it resulted entirely from fresh borrowing by Obaseki. Nevertheless, the evidence is undeniable: the high debt burden that weakened Edo’s Phillips Consulting score was substantially inherited from the Obaseki administration.

Okpebholo did not create that debt profile. He inherited it.

What does the index actually measure?

Although presented as a Momentum Index, only the revenue-growth component directly compares movement between two periods—2023 and 2024.

Other major components, including debt per capita, revenue self-reliance, citizen satisfaction and financial-reporting compliance, largely measure existing conditions.

A new government may introduce reforms and improve service delivery while still receiving a poor score because historically accumulated debt remains on the state’s balance sheet. Debt does not disappear simply because a new governor has taken office.

Debt per capita must also not be mistaken for a complete assessment of debt sustainability. A fuller evaluation should consider debt servicing relative to revenue, interest obligations, repayment periods, liquidity, assets financed through borrowing and long-term repayment capacity.

Interestingly, BudgIT’s separate 2025 Fiscal Performance Ranking placed Edo fifth out of 35 states, while Phillips Consulting placed it last on momentum. This does not necessarily invalidate either report. It demonstrates that the indices measure different variables and apply different weightings.

It also means that no responsible analyst should translate one composite ranking into the sweeping claim that Edo is Nigeria’s “worst-governed state.”

What about citizen perception?

Approximately 30 per cent of the Phillips Consulting assessment relates to citizen perception and other qualitative considerations. Since the survey was reportedly conducted in 2026, that component cannot be dismissed entirely as inherited data.

However, public perception is not a financial audit and cannot determine which administration created the fiscal conditions being assessed.

While the perception findings may provide useful feedback for the current government, they cannot transfer responsibility for FY2024 debt and revenue outcomes to Okpebholo.

Okpebholo’s proper assessment begins with FY2025

The first fair fiscal assessment of the Okpebholo administration should begin with the 2025 audited financial statements—its first full financial year.

Those accounts should show whether debt management improved, revenue increased, debt servicing became more sustainable and public spending produced visible roads, schools, hospitals and other essential services.

Governor Okpebholo must be assessed firmly and objectively when those figures are available. But judging him mainly with his predecessor’s final audited accounts is not accountability. It is a manipulation of timelines.

The Phillips Consulting report should not be discarded. It identifies genuine fiscal vulnerabilities that require government attention. But for Edo State, its objective findings principally describe the difficult financial conditions inherited by the present administration—not what that administration has achieved since assuming office.

The conclusion is therefore clear:

The Phillips Consulting index did not establish the failure of the Okpebholo administration. It documented the fiscal burden that the administration inherited and must now confront.

Okpebholo’s true report card will emerge from FY2025 and subsequent audited accounts.

Until then, presenting inherited 2024 fiscal outcomes as his performance is not objective analysis.

It is political propaganda dressed in borrowed statistics.

Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah is the Principal and CEO of Bush Radio Academy.