2023: Why Peter Obi Cannot Win Presidential Election – El-Rufai

2023: Why Peter Obi Cannot Win Presidential Election – El-Rufai

Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai said Thursday that the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, will not win the February 25 presidential election.

In an interview with TVC News, the governor stated that the projections by the ANAP Foundation’s poll and other opinion polls in favor of Mr Obi were not done accurately and thus cannot be relied on to measure the success of the Labour Party’s presidential candidate.

According to some polls, Mr Obi is leading, with Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) trailing him.

Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) finished fourth, trailing Messrs Tinubu and Atiku.

For example, according to ANAP polls conducted in early December 2022, 23% of voters intend to vote for Mr Obi in the presidential election, with 13% planning to vote for Mr Tinubu, who finished second.

Atiku came in third place with 10% of the vote, while Mr Kwankwaso came in fourth place with only 2% of the vote.

Governor El-Rufai, on the other hand, claimed that the poll was not conducted correctly and that Mr Obi’s Labour Party is using ethnic and religious bigotry in its campaign, which will also cause him to lose the election.

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“I was a teaching assistant for statistics, I understand it. I am not talking as a politician or a layman. The most important thing in looking at any opinion poll is the sample followed by the methodology.

“When you have hundreds of millions of registered voters and you are sampling three thousand registered voters your results are unreliable, will have a high margin of errors and most of these polls (predicting Peter Obi as the winner of the election) are like that,” Mr El-Rufai said.

“All the opinion polls conducted, the Bloomberg one, the ANAP one and the Ngozi Iweala one all use the telephone. Only 31 per cent of voters registered contain phone numbers. When you pick your sample out of the 31 per cent, from day one, your result is dead on arrival.

“I can take every one of these opinion polls and deconstruct them because I understand what is sampling and what is a methodology and those polls are a joke with the greatest respect,” the governor said.

He went on to say that according to one credible poll, the election will be a close race between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) (APC).

“We have done a poll with a sample of nearly 40,000 across Nigeria and the results of the polls show that we are ahead, and it’s going to be a tight election, there is a large percentage of undecided voters, we must work hard to swing the undecided to our side but we are ahead.

“How can Peter Obi win any election, he is polling one per cent in Sokoto, two per cent in Katsina, and five per cent in Kano, that is where the votes are, all states are not equal.

“The fact that he is doing 70 per cent in Anambra State does not mean somebody doing 10 per cent in Kano is not better than him. Kano is four million votes, and the number of votes in Anambra is the size of one local government in Kaduna State.

“Peter Obi will win southeastern states, South-south, where else? He is not polling well in the South-west other than a drop in the ocean in Lagos.

“He is polling in the Christian enclaves in the north, but how many are they? Peter Obi cannot win the election, he doesn’t have the number of states, and he doesn’t have 25 per cent in more than 16 states, he can’t go anywhere.

“Peter Obi is a Nollywood actor and that is all he will speak about. This election is between the APC and the PDP because they have the footprints and the ‘spate’. Ethnicity and religious bigotry will not take you anywhere and that is what the Labour Party campaign is about,” governor El-Rufai said.

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