Nigeria’s Oil Output Plummets 11% Year-On-Year – Report

Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, fell by nine per cent month-on-month in February 2026, averaging 1.483 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.627 million bpd in January, according to the latest report from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The report also indicated an 11 per cent year-on-year decline, as output dropped from 1.671 million bpd in February 2025 to 1.483 million bpd in the same month this year.

The NUPRC report highlighted that daily production fluctuated between a low of 1.52 million bpd and a peak of 1.82 million bpd. On average, crude oil accounted for 1,421,960 bpd, while condensate contributed 122,385 bpd. This production level represents approximately 95 per cent of Nigeria’s quota under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

While the commission did not cite specific reasons for the decline, industry sources attributed the drop to persistent oil theft and ageing infrastructure in the Niger Delta. Analysts noted that the decline prevented Nigeria from meeting its 2026 budget production target of 1.8 million bpd, despite global oil prices holding above $100 per barrel. The 2026 budget had assumed daily crude production of 1.84 million bpd, a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.

In related developments, the NUPRC confirmed the completion of the pre-qualification stage for applicants in the 2025 Licensing Round covering 50 oil blocks. The commission has notified successful applicants, who will now have access to relevant data to prepare for technical and commercial bid submissions. The NUPRC emphasized that data must be obtained only from approved sources and that proof of payment is required for participation in the next phase of the bidding process.