Petrol Set To Hit ₦1,400 As Middle East Crisis Sends Crude Prices Soaring

According to Ireporter Online, the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, is edging close to ₦1,400 per litre across several parts of Nigeria as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran continue to destabilise global oil markets.

The development comes amid the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between both nations, a situation that has raised fears over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. The sustained geopolitical uncertainty has triggered a fresh surge in crude oil prices, with Brent crude rising sharply from $105 per barrel on Monday to $118 by Wednesday.

The ripple effect has already been felt in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery reportedly increased its gantry price from ₦1,200 to ₦1,275 per litre, while coastal supply prices also moved up to ₦1,215 per litre, according to market data and industry sources. A refinery insider disclosed that operational disruptions, including a temporary suspension of pro forma invoice processing, contributed to a brief halt in petrol and diesel sales to marketers.

Further compounding the price pressure, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) adjusted the official selling prices of all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes. Reports indicate that the benchmark Bonny Light crude rose by $6.13 per barrel compared to April, while Forcados saw an increase of $7.01 per barrel, reflecting stronger global oil demand pressures linked to the ongoing crisis.

The rising crude costs have also filtered into retail markets, where filling stations across Lagos, Ogun, and other parts of the South-West have adjusted pump prices to between ₦1,315 and ₦1,350 per litre. In some northern and remote border communities, petrol prices have reportedly climbed as high as ₦1,400 per litre, with some locations experiencing even steeper rates due to supply constraints.

Industry stakeholders have warned that the situation could worsen if the geopolitical tensions persist. The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, cautioned that continued instability in the Middle East could push petrol prices beyond ₦1,500 per litre, stressing that market volatility is now driving unpredictable pricing patterns across the sector.

He further urged government intervention to stabilise transportation costs and mitigate inflationary pressures on food and essential goods, while advocating increased domestic crude production and refining capacity to cushion Nigeria from global shocks.

Meanwhile, energy experts and local refiners have called for a review of Nigeria’s crude pricing framework, arguing that continued reliance on international benchmarks such as Brent inflates domestic production costs. They insist that a locally structured pricing system would better support domestic refineries and reduce downstream price volatility.

Economists have also suggested policy options such as fixed crude pricing for local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, to ensure stability in fuel supply and pricing.

As global oil markets remain unsettled, analysts warn that Nigeria’s fuel prices may remain on an upward trajectory in the near term unless geopolitical tensions ease and domestic supply mechanisms are strengthened.