2023: Buhari’s Bet on Tinubu, Jonathan and Osinbajo’s Presidential Run, Matters Arising By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah 

2023: Buhari’s Bet on Tinubu, Jonathan and Osinbajo’s Presidential Run, Matters Arising By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah

It is no longer news that ex-President Goodluck Jonathan is joining the APC and would run for the party’s presidential ticket in the 2023 elections.

Jonathan’s entry would exacerbate the political party’s already high level of tension since every significant participant in the APC has expressed interest in succeeding Buhari.

Suffice it to say, six months ago, I never imagined the APC presidential election would be as interesting and thrilling as this, that it would be the most power-packed presidential contest in our nation’s history is not in doubt.

Three key players in the presidential contest have made it nearly difficult to predict which way the party’s ticket will tilt. Please keep in mind that this is an unbiased report on what could happen if Buhari’s bet backfires.

Buhari’s bet is the crucial term here. What is the president up to these days? Is it likely that the APC will implode, and if so, who will benefit from the implosion?

Jonathan’s clout as an ex-president who turned over power to Buhari means a lot if he finally abandons the PDP for the APC and runs for the party’s ticket.

Tinubu’s network and organization were crucial in Buhari’s ascent following the former military general’s several failed attempts. His participation in the race is crucial.

As a sitting Vice President, Osinbajo’s entry into the APC presidential race without the endorsement of President Buhari is suicidal.

If you remove emotions from your thinking, it makes sense that President Buhari must have granted his approval to all three participants.

For example, Goodluck Jonathan would be unwise to accept the offer to join the APC without the clear consent of Buhari providing him with the APC structure.

On the other hand, Prof Osinbajo, with all due respect, would not enter the presidential contest unless Buhari backed him up.

Finally, Jagaban, who also happens to be the APC’s National Leader, would not enter the race unless President Buhari assured him of fair play.

I’m not here to persuade you of my school of thinking that Buhari endorsed all three aspirants based on their requests; even if I had to face the firing squad, I’d swear that Buhari agreed to the requests made by these three important actors.

So what is Buhari’s intention toward the APC presidential primaries?

Here is a brief on the likely scenario with each of these aforementioned key figures.

Prof Yemi Osinbajo.

Of course, based on Osinbajo’s campaign, it is clear that the vice president is relying entirely on Buhari’s support. You may spin the tale however you want, but the truth is that Osinbajo is Tinubu’s protege and would not get far without Buhari’s support.

Osinbajo does not command the South-West APC leadership structure, from which he hails. He would never be able to assemble a sizable list of delegates.

Osinbajo lacks the clout to face Tinubu on a delegate basis without the complete support of Buhari, which is why all of his campaigns are emphasizing the importance of reaching a consensus arrangement.

Goodluck Jonathan.

Why would Goodluck Jonathan enter the campaign if Buhari does not expressly sanction him? On what framework or mandate would Goodluck stand?

Goodluck was derided by the PDP’s northern governors, which led to his defeat by Buhari in 2015. What has changed, if I may ask? Goodluck’s case is even worse than Prof Osinbajo’s case because Goodluck has no motive to come to APC to seek the presidency if not on Buhari’s invitation, whereas Osinbajo did the right thing by contesting because this is his one shot at the presidency for the rest of his life.

So, if there is to be an endorsement, Goodluck would come first, followed by Prof Osinbajo, unless the President requested him to be mocked.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Tinubu’s sole plea to Buhari was for fair play, which Buhari must have explicitly granted him. Tinubu was the first to inform Buhari of his plan to run for president, and he did so on purpose.

Buhari’s pledge of a level playing field must have inspired the Jagaban to enter the race. He had to feel confident that he would be treated fairly.

Matters arising.

According to all indicators, the next president of Nigeria will not be a political newcomer; the PDP and APC will field credible contenders to compete with each other.

And, if the PDP’s body language is any indication, the party would almost certainly present Atiku to face the incumbent APC and its strength of incumbency.

The aim is to get a rallying point from the north, which would give the APC a fierce struggle, turning the war into a North versus South battle.

Consensus arrangement

The consensus arrangement is intended to be similar to a mini-delegate system, with the only distinction being that there are fewer decision-makers than in the delegates system.

If Buhari does not impose his preferred candidate unilaterally, whoever wins the delegate system is expected to also win the consensus arrangement.

So only Buhari’s persistence may have a significant impact on who becomes the APC presidential flagbearer.

Jonathan has taken an oath of service twice as a serving president, which could make his candidacy vulnerable to legal challenges.

Jonathan’s entry into the APC is amusing and can be compared to bestowing the throne on someone who has never worked for it.

Campaigning for Jonathan under the APC would be tough since the PDP would not require much effort to campaign against him.

All the party has to do is rerun the 2015 campaign tapes that Buhari and the APC used to demarket GEJ.

It would be similar to what we saw during the Edo 2020 elections.

Obaseki utilized Adams Oshiomhole’s statements to campaign against Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, and it worked like magic.

Like someone pointed out,” how can you campaign for someone the world referred to as a failure, the man whom the history of the party’s victory is attached to his incompetency”

Osinbajo may not be able to conduct a frontal assault on Atiku and the PDP, especially if President Buhari is unwilling to fully support his campaign with all his might.

Consider how many states the APC possessed in the North prior to the 2015 national elections.

You can not use people to work the work of an Elephant and pay them in the wages of an ant.

Whatever occurs, Nigerians should understand that having a single area maintain the president for 16 years in a row is not ideal, ethical, or moral.

If this occurs, Nigeria will not be able to recover from the hegemony of a region-dominating power for at least 50 years.

The quota system would be messed up beyond our wildest dreams, and power would be concentrated completely in the hands of the area for many years to come, with all appointments to Federal Government agencies becoming a one-region affair.

At this pace, the South should anticipate working as one indispensable family to secure the presidency for the sake of equity and fairness.

If the APC implodes, it becomes a problem for the South rather than the North; the North has demonstrated time and again that it can always go for its own interests; only a formidable candidate from the South can put a stop to this.

Only fairness and a transparent presidential primary would keep the APC from imploding.

Let us keep our fingers crossed on how this plays out.

Once again my name na Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah and na me be the Principal and Chairman/CEO Bush Radio Academy.

Call Line 07032341798

Whatsapp Only +234 901 064 9814

Source iReporteronline.

Copyright protected.