Economic Earthquake: Nigeria’s 38% GDP Surge Pushes It Toward Africa’s Top Three

Nigeria is set to become Africa’s third-largest economy by 2025, according to projections by the National Orientation Agency (NOA), following a major rebound in Gross Domestic Product that reflects new economic realities and improved sectoral contributions.

As reported in iReporter Online, the NOA stated in its weekly publication The Explainer that Nigeria’s economy grew significantly after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased the GDP using 2019 as the new base year. The updated GDP figure stands at ₦372.8 trillion ($243.7 billion), reflecting a 38% surge from earlier estimates.

This economic leap positions Nigeria just behind Algeria, which holds a nominal GDP of $247.63 billion. Analysts at NOA predict that by the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria could overtake Algeria to claim the third spot among Africa’s largest economies by GDP, trailing only Egypt and South Africa.

The rebased calculation incorporates sectors previously underrepresented, including e-commerce, mining, and various informal activities. According to the NOA, services now contribute 53.09% to the GDP, followed by agriculture at 25.83% and industry at 21.08%.

Despite persistent naira depreciation, which has weighed on the dollar-denominated valuation of the GDP, the NOA stated that the economy expanded by an impressive 81.8% between 2019 and 2024. The agency noted that this growth underscores Nigeria’s increasing diversification and the untapped potential of the informal economy.

“The latest GDP figures highlight structural shifts in Nigeria’s economy and affirm the country’s trajectory toward becoming Africa’s third-largest economy. This momentum is driven by innovation in non-traditional sectors, a growing services base, and formal recognition of informal contributions,” the agency noted.

The NOA’s editorial board is chaired by the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris.